2024 British Open: Claret Jug is Shane Lowry’s to lose, Scottie Scheffler leads stars chasing on Moving Day

The 2024 Open Championship has reached its halfway point, and though the storylines have narrowed, there are still plenty to pay attention to this weekend at Royal Troon. It all starts at the top where, not since 2012 when Ernie Els won at Royal Lytham and St Annes, has a golfer won a second Claret Jug.

Shane Lowry took advantage of the better half of the draw over the first 36 holes to follow his Thursday 66 with a Friday 69 moving to 7 under, which is five clear of all but two golfers in the field.

This Open is now his to lose.

Lowry’s emotional state is always interesting. He spoke after the 2019 Open, which he won at Royal Portrush, about how he looked in the mirror on Sunday morning and wondered wehther he had what it took to win a major and hoist the Claret Jug. He’s handled himself so well this week, and the emotions will certainly be different this time around. 

“Honestly, I’m not sure Scottie Scheffler is too worried about anyone with the form he’s in,” Lowry said Friday. “He’s obviously on the leaderboard, and he’s one person that people are going to be talking about. There’s some other guys there as well. I see Justin Rose going well, and this guy Daniel Brow., I’ve never played with him, but obviously he had a great day yesterday and looks to be going all right today.

“I think if I give myself a chance on Sunday, I know I can do it. That’s as good a position to be in as any.”

Players like Lowry — terrific at golf but not an all-time great — are not supposed to win two majors. Some of them don’t even win one. Lowry got his major back at Portrush, and now … two Opens? Well, that would be a massive bonus and a career arc that few expected from the Irishman. 

“I can’t wait to watch this weekend,” said Lowry’s friend, Rory McIlroy. “He’s so creative. I think even just watching the coverage the last couple of days, that little sort of squeezy cut that he can hit, especially going out in that front nine, is going to be really helpful to him. Yeah, look, he relishes these conditions. He loves playing these conditions. The Open Championship is his favorite tournament in the world. He gets more up for this than anything else.

“I’m looking forward to cheering him on and hopefully him getting his second jug.”

Double Rose?

Playing one pairing behind Lowry will be his Ryder Cup teammate. Rose, who has just one career major to his name but the statistical record of somebody who should probably have two or more, acknowledged earlier this week that his window is closing. 

At age 43, and having qualified into this year’s event, this could be Rose’s last great opportunity. If he is able to grab a second major to go with the 2013 U.S. Open victory, he would also become the fourth-oldest Open winner (oldest since Robert de Vicenzo in 1967).

That tells two stories. The first is that it’s difficult to win majors at an advanced age. The second is thatRose’s career has been more impressive than it seems. Similar to Phil Mickelson winning the PGA Championship in 2021, a win here would underscore the reality that Rose has been a world-class player for the last 25 years. 

World No. 1 is lurking

The second betting favorite is actually not one of the guys tied for second place but one tied for fourth. That’s because that man is Scottie Scheffler, the No. 1 player in the world who has won six times since March 1. Scheffler will try this weekend to do something that has only been accomplished three other times since 1980: Win the Masters and The Open in the same year.

The guys ahead of him on the leaderboard are likely concerned about what the best player in the world does over the next 36 holes. (If they’re not, they should be.) But Scheffler is only concerned about one thing: “It doesn’t really matter to me what those guys are doing. I’m trying to do my best to hit good shots and put myself in position. And going into the weekend five shots back, I feel like I’m in a decent position.”

Scheffler is trying to join Nick Faldo (1990), Mark O’Meara (1998) and Tiger Woods (2005) as the only golfers to win the Masters and The Open in the same year. He’s also trying to join Woods (2000, 2006) as the only other golfer since 1983 to win seven PGA Tour events and two majors in the same year since.

Will Dan Brown crack the code?

The Cinderella story so far is Brown, who said Friday that he not only prefers “Dan” to “Daniel” but has heard every “The DaVinci Code” joke (not) in the book. After shooting 65 on Thursday, he maintained on Friday and will be in the final pairing alongside Lowry. Brown is trying to become the first player since Keegan Bradley in 2011 to win a major in his first start at such an event. He is also attempting to become the first since Collin Morikawa in 2019 to win The Open in his first attempt at hoisting a Claret Jug.

If the pressure is getting to him, he has yet to show it. “I’ve always been quite laid back, really,” Brown said. “I am a bit of a realist as well. I know I’m not going to start getting ahead of myself and thinking that, ‘Oh my God, I’m leading The Open’ or ‘I’m second in The Open’ or whatever. There’s still 36 holes left. I might have a good round tomorrow, and then I might have a stinky round on Sunday. You just don’t know.”

Wind could bring several players back

The scoring differential between the morning and afternoon wave on Friday was a full two shots. If that’s the case again Saturday or Sunday, somebody from a bit further back could play their way back into the mix. Similarly, those out in front could be brought back to the pack if the weather is more difficult late in the day. Rose’s 5 under number is one of the only under-par scores from his half of the draw, and I’m excited to see how the wind affects the last 5-10 groups over the next 36 holes.

Big dogs chasing

Here are the players worse than 2 under but better than 3 over who should concern Lowry and Rose at the top of this leaderboard (especially if we get that wind scenario above).

• Xander Schauffele: -1
• Patrick Cantlay: -1
• Dustin Johnson: +1
• Brooks Koepka: +1
• Collin Morikawa: +1
• Jon Rahm: +1

One of those six players is going to shoot something excellent Saturday — likely in the high 60s — and if the door opens at all at the top of this board, it will bring one or more of them into the conversation to win this tournament Sunday afternoon.

That’s what remains fascinating about Opens. There is weather on the horizon and massive numbers all over the golf course. It’s never over until the end. And this one in particular is not even close.