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Week 6 college football is here, and while I don’t know that we’ll get another thriller like Georgia–Bama, there are still plenty of spots to wager some cash.
This week, I’ve got my eyes on a couple Big Ten matchups and on the battle between two service academies.
Can Penn State cover the big number against a struggling UCLA? Will Minnesota hang tough with the Trojans?
Let’s dive into my best bets for this weekend’s slate of games.
(All times ET)
Saturday, Oct. 5
UCLA @ No. 7 Penn State (noon, FOX and FOX Sports app)
I’ll admit it; this wager is a little about me being a stubborn mule.
UCLA is not good. The Bruins have scored four offensive touchdowns in four games. They are also 128th in points per drive on defense. Yet, they’ve easily covered two straight games against LSU and Oregon, two teams that, on paper, should have blown them out.
But this week, UCLA should get dominated.
Penn State ranks 13th in points per drive on offense, with that unit showing a better grasp of how to generate explosive plays than last season. Quarterback Drew Allar is completing 71% of his passes, while the Penn State run game ranks 15th in rushing success rate. The Nittany Lions defense remains one of the best in the country. It ranks third in overall efficiency and 11th in points per drive.
This game should be 49-7 for Penn State.
State has the advantage of being at home. UCLA, on the other hand, played its latest game on Saturday night and according to the players’ internal body clocks for this week, this is a 9 a.m. matchup for the Bruins. Oh, and it’s 2500 miles away. UCLA is beat up, and the quarterback Ethan Garbers is questionable to play.
UCLA’s in a bad spot this weekend, and I’m going to wager on Penn State because of it.
PICK: Penn State (-28) to win by more than 28 points
CFB Week 6 Super Six: Penn State vs. UCLA, Colorado look-ahead
Navy is excellent this season and on pace for 10 wins.
The Midshipmen rank 10th in the sport in net yards per play, while being fourth in points per drive. They’ve somewhat moved away from their traditional offense of running, running and running some more. Instead, they’re throwing the ball a little more this season.
They already have 44 pass attempts this year, and Horvath has completed 30 of them. Navy is a good squad and it’s playing a bad Air Force team. And calling Air Force bad might be being too nice.
The Falcons are 0-4 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), failing to cover the spread against FBS teams by 13 points. Air Force is 129th in points per drive on offense and not much better on defense.
I like Navy to win and cover this game.
PICK: Navy (-10) to win by more than 10 points
CFB Week 6 Bets Bets: USC vs. Minnesota and Georgia Tech vs. Duke
No. 11 USC @ Minnesota (7:30 p.m., BTN)
This is a situational wager for me. USC is in a look-ahead spot and Minnesota gets to play a team that isn’t Iowa or Michigan.
The Trojans are 4-1 after a Saturday afternoon victory over Wisconsin in a game with a slightly deceiving score. USC was down 21-10 with Wisconsin getting the ball back after a quick three-and-out to start the third quarter. Wisconsin muffed the punt and USC scored three touchdowns on the next three possessions. Now, USC is on the road this weekend, and next weekend is the huge contest against Penn State in the Coliseum.
Minnesota will benefit tremendously from not having to play two teams that can win the trenches like Iowa and Michigan. SC’s offensive line is brutal this season; Minnesota is sixth in pressure rate on opposing offensive lines and overall 32nd in points per drive. The Trojans easily have the best passing offense that the Gophers have faced, but Minnesota’s defensive backs are ranked 16th in havoc rate. They are sticky and defend passes well.
If USC’s offensive line can’t protect, then it’s an easier job for Minnesota. Also, and this is a product of USC’s offensive line, the Trojans are not good in the redzone.
The Gophers offense does not create explosive plays, but they also just played two of the top five defenses in efficiency. USC’s defense has improved from last season, but it does have issues stopping the run (remember the Michigan game). Additionally, it does not force long third downs, which is not where Minnesota wants to live.
With all this in mind, Minnesota should be able to execute the game plan that it would like on offense. Run the ball with play action pass.
I’ll take the Gophers to cover.
PICK: Minnesota (+8.5) to lose by fewer than 8.5 points, or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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