The men’s basketball group-stage games for the 2024 Paris Olympics are set to kick off Saturday, but the United States won’t be in action until Sunday, when it will face a tough Serbia team featuring Nikola Jokic and Bogdan Bogdanovic right out of the gate.
The Americans are, of course, the heavy favorite to win their fifth straight gold medal, having assembled another roster full of NBA superstars. With such a vast swath of talent, the U.S. has a margin for error that no other team can match, as it can literally go to the last man on its bench (right now, that might be Tyrese Haliburton) and still have an All-NBA level player on the floor. But the rub of that is you have a bunch of guys who are used to being the star of their team potentially playing limited minutes in a supportive role.
Take Joel Embiid, for instance. The man is an NBA MVP, but most people don’t even think he should be in the starting lineup. It’s a reasonable projection that he might not even play that big a role on this American team.
Which makes him a major American wild card. He’s not alone among American players with a wide range of potential roles, from a central star to a guy like Haliburton, who might not even be in the rotation. With that in mind, here are the four biggest wild cards — which is to say, those with the hardest values to predict — on the U.S. roster heading into Sunday.
Joel Embiid
Embiid will start, but not because he’s a better FIBA player than Anthony Davis, who is one of the best and most important players on the American team. Perhaps promises were made when Embiid was recruited to play for the U.S., or maybe Kerr likes the idea of Davis and Bam Adebayo dominating worlds as a second-unit defensive wrecking crew. Frankly, it doesn’t matter who starts. What matters is when a close game arrives, who will be in there at the end?
That answer is likely Davis for his defensive mobility and vertical lob threat, but just because Embiid didn’t stand out through the exhibitions doesn’t mean he can’t dominate this tournament through the meatiest portions of games. His size will be a necessity in certain (potential) matchups, and he is still Joel Embiid.
Maybe Embiid dominates so much in the post that forcing defenses to double him becomes a go-to action for the Americans. Maybe he catches fire with his face-up jumper, which we’ve seen renders him virtually indefensible. Ultimately, it’s easier to imagine Embiid playing a less significant role in Paris than his NBA status would suggest, but dominance is always a possibility with a seven-foot, close-to-300-pound MVP.
Booker shot 10 of 25 and 33% from 3 through America’s five exhibitions. He was in and out of the starting lineup. Kerr has said that LeBron, Curry and Embiid are penciled into the first five, leaving the last two slots open — likely for two of Booker, Jayson Tatum, Anthony Edwards and Jrue Holiday. My guess would be Holiday or Tatum with Edwards, but Booker could get the nod on account of clarifying Edwards’ scoring role with the second unit.
Either way, Booker’s value could end up ranking pretty high in this tournament as a reliable scorer and solid creator, and if his 3-ball is falling he could actually take on an unexpected starring role.
Or, he could fade toward the back of the rotation as a minutes-eating gap filler. Such a role would likely not be an indictment of Booker, but more a product of Tatum and Edwards asserting themselves (Holiday is a lock to play a major role for his defense). Such a wide range of potential roles makes Booker, in my mind, the biggest wild card on the team.
Durant is probably out for the Olympic opener against Serbia, and who knows when he’ll be able to go. If he were totally healthy, he’d be a clear starter and perhaps the go-to scorer. But not having played through the exhibitions and having to jump into the heat of Olympic battle, potentially off the bench, could make it tough for Durant to find his groove right away.
Then again, he’s Kevin Durant. Nobody will be surprised if he steps right into a starring role carrying the Americans with his isolation scoring. Durant is a cheat code in the international game with the shorter 3-point line. He’s America’s all-time Olympic leader in a ton of categories, including points, 3-pointers and free throws. My guess is that he becomes a vital source of offense for an American team that could struggle, relatively speaking, to find flow in the half court, but the injury and time off at least make it a question.
Tyrese Haliburton
Haliburton might be out of the rotation as Derrick White has seemingly assumed second-unit point guard duties, but don’t be surprised if Hali ends up having a bigger role than it looks like he will right now. Haliburton is a lab-created FIBA player with a penchant for ball-pushing and tempo and his connective talents in the half-court.
It is so easy to see Haliburton busting out in this environment, getting hot from 3 and turning into a key contributor off the Americans’ bench. Or maybe he hardly plays. A total wild card.
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