The semifinals are set for the men’s basketball tournament at the 2024 Paris Olympics, after a quarterfinals round that saw one surprising outcome as host country France dismantled Canada, who were previously expected to reach the gold medal match of the competition. But France bounced back from a shaky performance through the group stage, and now head on to the semifinals where they have a chance to grab one of three medals. Joining France are the United States, Germany and Serbia, none of which are surprising given how talented all three teams are.
Team USA is on a quest to earn a fifth-straight gold medal at the Olympics, and while they’ll be heavily favored in every match going forward, that doesn’t mean the rest of the teams can’t offer a tough challenge for the red, white and blue. Germany are the defending FIBA World Cup champions, and the only other undefeated team left in the tournament next to Team USA, Serbia has three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and France just showed that they can make the necessary adjustments to pull off an upset.
Before the semifinals start on Thursday, here’s how the remaining four teams competing in the men’s basketball tournament rank.
4. Serbia
In the quarterfinals match against Australia, Jokic proved once more why he’s the greatest player in the world currently. Jokic finished with 21 points, 14 rebounds, nine assists, four steals and two blocks, but the real highlight came in overtime. After falling behind by 24 points in the first half, Jokic orchestrated a comeback in the second half, and when overtime started, he was in complete control of every aspect of the game. Jokic doesn’t just beat you with relentless scoring that’s common with most superstars, he slowly dismantles you with every assist, rebound, block and made basket that when the final buzzer sounds, you look up and see how much control he has over every aspect of the game.
Australia looked like it was in cruise control of that game, but Jokic took over and that was the end of that. Six Serbian players finished the game in double figures, another crucial key to their win, something that they’ll need to replicate if they have any shot at taking down Team USA in the semifinals. They’ve been blown out by the Americans twice now in the last two months, but if they guys around Jokic can knock down shots at an efficient rate, they can at least keep things close against Team USA.
3. France
Just before the quarterfinals started I wrote about how the French have been disappointing in this tournament, surviving a scare against Japan and then getting dusted by Germany in group play. Well perhaps they read what I wrote, because they completely turned that narrative on its head against Canada. The final score, 82-73, won’t reflect how much of a blowout this game was. After struggling to get production out of their role players, Guerschon Yabusele and Isaia Cordinier answered the call, combining for 42 points. It was a near perfect game from France, who opted to bring Rudy Gobert off the bench, and then only played him for three minutes. It resulted in a more athletic, smaller lineup for France, a unit more capable of contending with Canada’s high-powered perimeter offense.
It’s unclear if Gobert’s benching was because of an undisclosed finger injury that he, his teammates and the coaches mentioned following the win, or because of matchups, or a mixture of both. But whatever the reason, it resulted in the best performance from France in this tournament. But they have an even tougher matchup waiting for them, as Germany beat them by 14 points in group play, and are a way more cohesive unit on the international level than Canada.
2. Germany
Germany is the only other unbeaten team to this point aside from Team USA, and they’ve won each game by an average of 15 points. They started out slow against Greece in the quarterfinals, getting outscored 21-11, the fewest points they’ve scored in a quarter in this tournament, but they quickly got back on track, outscoring Greece 65-42 over the next three quarters. Franz Wagner led the way in scoring with 18 points, while Dennis Schroder added on 13 points. That duo alone has been potent enough to get Germany past any team in this tournament so far, and they’ll face a France team they’ve already easily dealt with once in this competition.
But France just proved they can make timely adjustments in their win against Canada, and since they know one strategy against Germany didn’t work, you can bet they’ll bring something else on Thursday with a spot in the gold medal match on the line. Germany doesn’t have the biggest names in this tournament, but they have a cohesive roster that has played together for quite some time, and it shows.
1. United States
No one has adequately tested the Americans so far in this competition, and their biggest threat — Canada — just got bounced from the tournament after losing to France. They made quick work of Brazil, just as they have with their previous three opponents in this tournament, and they’ll face a familiar foe in Serbia in the semifinals. They’ve beaten Serbia by an average of 26 points over two games in the last month, so there hasn’t been any indication until this point that the third time will go any differently. It would take for Serbia to get hot from 3-point range, and Jokic to really take complete control for things to go south for the Americans, but even then, the game may just be competitive instead of a blowout.
The matchup to watch in this semifinals will be Jokic vs. Joel Embiid, the latter of whom has struggled for the most part in the Olympics. He had his best performance against Brazil, finishing with 14 points and seven rebounds in the first half, and while they don’t need him to do any more than that, the Americans will need Embiid’s size to try and contain Jokic.
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