2024 Tour Championship picks, odds: Expert predictions, favorites to win FedEx Cup Playoffs from betting field

An incredible PGA Tour season reaches its conclusion this weekend as the 2024 FedEx Cup Playoffs wrap with the final leg held at East Lake Golf Club. A simply massive $25 million winner’s share on the line for whomever finishes atop the leaderboard at the 2024 Tour Championship, and that person will not only bring home a massive sum but a significant trophy as one of the top golfers of the year.

Perhaps no two players have more on the line than Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele. The former has put together a whirlwind season with six PGA Tour wins, including a Masters and Players Championship, and an Olympic gold medal chaser. The latter followed his first career major at the PGA Championship with his second two months later at The Open Championship. Both have put together simply incredible seasons to this point, and while Scheffler may be in pole position for PGA Tour Player of the Year, a win for Schauffele could tighten that race considerably. 

Which of the two feats would be more impressive? Our CBS Sports experts debate just that below. You can also take a look at a FedEx Cup Playoffs primer, including the final 30 men in the field and details of what will transpire over the next 72 holes at East Lake.

Scheffler (-10) enters as the leader with Schauffele (-8) sitting two strokes back. Behind them, the top 10 in the standings entering East Lake are Hideki Matsuyama (-7), Keegan Bradley (-6), Ludvig Åberg (-5) and the foursome of Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns and Patrick Cantlay (-4). The rest of the top 30 are 7-10 strokes behind Scheffler with 72 holes to go.

The staggered leaderboard provides benefit to those golfers who put together sterling seasons to this point, but the advantages are not so significant that those lower on the leaderboard cannot make a run. As such, it’s possible that the best performer at the Tour Championship is not atop the leaderboard once play concludes Sunday, but with so much money on the line — the top nine will all earn $2 million or more this weekend — every spot in the standings matters.

So, what is going to happen at East Lake? Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we attempt to project who will win — and what will happen — at the final PGA Tour event of the season.

2024 Tour Championship expert picks, predictions

Kyle Porter, senior golf writer

Winner — Xander Schauffele (5/2): It seems fairly clear to me that Schauffele is going to win this event. He absolutely crushes at this golf course with a 3.55 true-strokes-gained mark that is nearly a shot better per round than the next best in the field (minimum eight rounds played). Plus, he’s in a better mental spot than Scottie Scheffler. A Schauffele win is going to make the PGA Tour Player of the Year race more interesting as he will have won two majors and the FedEx Cup but potentially not earn that honor.

Sleeper — Rory McIlroy (18-1): Absolutely destroys East Lake, and at 4 under, he’s playing from a position where he’s won this event before. (He chased down Scheffler from six back to start the 2022 event.) The golf has not been consistently good since the U.S. Open, but I’ll take 16-1 odds that he finds something at a place he clearly loves playing and dials it in for this one week to get a victory.

Top 10 entering who will not win — Scottie Scheffler: Is that bold enough for you? I’m just not seeing it with Scheffler. He’s never won a FedEx Cup Playoff event, and he is entering off his worst week in two years last week at the BMW Championship. It’s clear that he does not enjoy these playoffs, and there are too many horses behind him.

Biggest jump up leaderboard — Tommy Fleetwood: It’s a good spot for Fleetwood from which to play. He’s 22nd in the standings and will start nine back of Scheffler. That should allow him to play with a ton of freedom, and he’s been putting together some tremendous golf of late with three consecutive top 25s — two of them top fives — since a missed cut at The Open in July. 

Biggest fall down leaderboard — Keegan Bradley: Other than Scheffler, Bradley will likely experience the most significant tumble. He’s risen all the way to fourth in the FedEx Cup standings, which is not commensurate with how he’s been playing in 2024. While it would be a pretty incredible story for him to go out and win the FedEx Cup, it’s more likely that it goes the other way.

Bigger achievement with a win — Scheffler or Schauffele? This is a tough one, but I lean Scheffler though neither of them have won the FedEx Cup before. An eight-win overall year with a Masters, Players, Olympic gold medal and FedEx Cup title would likely never again be matched, which is what’s at stake for Scheffler this week at East Lake.

Patrick McDonald, golf writer

Winner — Xander Schauffele (5/2): Restoration, no restoration, it doesn’t matter for Schauffele at East Lake. While the golf course will be different than years past, the bones are the same. Schauffele won in his debut as a rookie in 2017, fired the lowest score in 2020 and tied Viktor Hovland last year in the same category only to finish second in the FedEx Cup. He’s the most well-rounded player in the game, and it’s time for him to raise the silver at week’s end.

Sleeper — Rory McIlroy (18-1): It’s tough to say what a sleeper looks like in this tournament given the staggered scoring start, but McIlroy needing to make up six strokes on Scheffler should count. Most notably is that Rory has the largest comeback in FedEx Cup Playoffs history, and he did it from exactly as many strokes behind just two years ago. The competition out in front of him this year is a bit tougher, but after coming up short at the majors — including a heartbreaker at the U.S. Open — and the Olympics, I would not at all be surprised to see him reign once again in Atlanta.

Top 10 entering who will not win — Scottie Scheffler: It’s the end of the year, and I’m feeling bold, so why not? Scheffler entered the Tour Championship with the two-stroke lead the past two seasons and finished those respective tournaments runner up and in a share of sixth place. I’m not putting a ton of stock into his performance at the BMW Championship, but with an achy back, Schauffele right behind him and a distaste for this format, I could see the world No. 1 leaving East Lake 0 for 3 as the man in pole position.

Biggest jump up the leaderboard — Billy Horschel: Could throw Hovland here at 2 under, but let’s go one stroke further with Horschel from 1 under. The 2014 FedEx Cup champion has been playing beautifully over this last month with three straight top 10s before a solid showing at the BMW Championship. His tee-to-green game has returned, and his putting is always capable of sending him over the top. He’s a bubble boy for the U.S. Presidents Cup team, and Horschel would love nothing more than to leave an impression on captain Jim Furyk with his play at East Lake.

Biggest fall down the leaderboard — Keegan Bradley: The BMW Championship winner starts in fourth place at 6 under, but let’s not be prisoners of the moment here. Bradley has had a good — not great — season that has featured just three top-10 finishes and two other top 20s up to this point. He doesn’t have the best record at East Lake, and with players like Ludvig Åberg, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa immediately behind him, I could see him moving in the wrong direction.

Bigger achievement with a win — Scheffler or Schauffele? Schauffele had an unbelievable major championship season, but Scheffler has put together a historic campaign; the FedEx Cup would fit nicely on his mantle. A win would make it seven on the PGA Tour and pull him alongside the totals of Tiger Woods in 2007 and Tom Watson in 1980. And that’s not counting his Olympic gold medal from Paris. Scheffler would also pull alongside Jordan Spieth and Jason Day with 13 career PGA Tour wins — a fun little subplot.

Adam Silverstein, director of editorial

Winner — Xander Schauffele (5/2): Scheffler has been the best player in 2024, but Schauffele is undoubtedly the hottest — despite the fact that Scottie topped Xander in Paris at the Olympics. While East Lake may have been restored, Schauffele feels at home in Atlanta and has simply dominated this course at every opportunity. A two-shot deficit is easy enough to overcome in nine holes let alone 72, and while I have belief in others this week, there is no one I’d rather back at this juncture of the season.

Sleeper — Viktor Hovland (66-1): The reigning champion needs to make up two strokes per round on Scheffler; that is a lot to ask, but he has the firepower to do it. The St. Jude Championship reminded us that a player of Hovland’s caliber is never that far off. Despite a middling start at the BMW Championship, the ball striking continued to shine. He arrives with seven straight rounds in the 60s under his belt at East Lake.

Top 10 entering who will not win —  Keegan Bradley: It has been easy to root for Bradley of late, particularly if you are a fan of American golf and happened to watch “Full Swing” where you saw visual proof of his devastation not being chosen for the Ryder Cup team last year. Bradley storming to the top and winning the BMW Championship last week was immense, but his level of play has not indicated that he is someone who should be trusted to contend in consecutive weeks against this level of competition — let alone go back to back in the final two tournaments of the season.

Biggest jump up the leaderboard — Billy Horschel: There’s a level of bias here as I always appreciate seeing my orange-and-blue brethren succeed, but it has been a tremendous close to the season for Horschel. He had an incredible run in the FedEx Cup a decade ago, and as Patrick mentioned, a potential spot in the Presidents Cup is on the line should he play the best version of his game this week. Golf is more fun when Horschel plays well even if his game is not one that gets modern fans excited.

Biggest fall down the leaderboard — Wyndham Clark: Though he has played well over the latter stretch of the season, Clark has not been at his best when the pressure is on this season. He missed the cut at three of four major championships and finished T56 at the U.S. Open. With a Presidents Cup bid already clinched, Clark will be playing for money alone — that is certainly attractive, don’t get it twisted, but the motivation factor is simply not the same as others in this field.

Bigger achievement with a win — Scheffler or Schauffele? It absolutely has to be Scheffler. While Schauffele has been exceptional down the stretch of this campaign, Scheffler looked to be headed for a breakthrough season until his arrest at the PGA Championship. He’s been relatively (for him) up and down since that tournament with his dominance at signature events carrying him through the year. The Olympic gold medal was a significant feather in his cap; a FedEx Cup would be like slinging a cartoonishly large bag of money over his shoulder. It would not count toward his record-setting season total, but a $25 million bonus on top of what he has already earned would be something. It would also clinch the PGA Tour Player of the Year honor he’s likely already won. Seven wins on the PGA Tour has not been accomplished in 17 years.