League One promotion and relegation permutations: Who needs what on the final day?

League One has already decided its champion, one play-off place and three of the relegated teams this season, but that still leaves something to play for in all the key positions of the third tier table on the final day.

Second place should realistically be sewn up, but it’s still mathematically possible for Derby County to blow it, while the play-off picture remains incredibly murky with four sides battling it out for just two remaining places.

Plus, there’s a three-way battle for survival that could end up decided on goals scored. Saturday’s 12:30pm kick-offs are going to be fascinating viewing – here’s what’s on the line.

Portsmouth are already confirmed for a place in the Championship having wrapped up automatic promotion with two games to spare. Five points clear of second-placed Derby County, Pompey also guaranteed the League One title.

Derby are three points ahead of third-placed Bolton Wanderers and four goals better off on goal difference, so claiming at least a point at home to rock-bottom Carlisle on Saturday would definitely see them promoted.

Bolton will meanwhile travel to fourth-placed Peterborough hoping not just to beat the Posh (who are assured of a play-off place whatever happens) but also for a sufficient goal-difference swing to pip Derby into second place.

Bolton have scored more goals than Derby this season, so it’s not entirely impossible: a two-goal win for Bolton coupled with a two-goal defeat for Derby would make that happen (or various other permutations that add up to four). But given who Derby are playing, it’s unlikely.

League One play-off places

Bolton will probably be joining Peterborough United in the play-offs this season, then. Darren Ferguson’s side would need to beat Bolton by four goals to overtake them into third place, if that particularly matters to them.

There’s a four-way battle for the other two play-off places. Fifth-placed Barnsley (75 points) are just two points ahead of eighth-placed Blackpool (73 points) with the same goal difference, with the two sides sandwiched between them – Lincoln CIty and Oxford United (both 74 points) – both holding a better goal difference.

Barnsley host Northampton on the final day and would be guaranteed a play-off place by matching the results of at least two of the other three teams in the mix – so a win would definitely suffice. Conversely, failing to at least match any two of the results elsewhere across the three other teams in the mix would see Barnsley finish outside the play-offs.

Bar a very unlikely bit of business on goal difference that we’ll come to in a moment, sixth-placed Lincoln, at home to Portsmouth, would seal a play-off place if they at least match both Oxford and Blackpool’s results; or if they better Barnsley’s result and at least match one of Oxford or Blackpool’s results.

Oxford go away to Exeter, and would rise into a play-off berth if they better either Barnsley or Lincoln’s results and at least match Blackpool’s; or if they are able to win by a scoreline that is at least five goals better than a victorious Lincoln’s own margin (e.g. Lincoln win 1-0 and Oxford win 6-0), thus clinching a place on goal difference or goals scored.

Realistically, goal difference means Blackpool need to win away to Reading to stand a chance of making it into the play-offs. Even then, they would need at least two of Barnsley, Lincoln and Oxford to fail to win.

League One relegation permutations

Carlisle, Port Vale and Fleetwood are already confirmed for the drop, leaving three teams to battle it out to avoid filling the fourth and final relegation place. Cheltenham are the current occupants, two points behind Burton Albion and three behind Cambridge United.

Cheltenham have to win to stand any chance of survival – but the very tight goal difference implications mean that if they win away to Stevenage while either Burton and Cambridge lose, Cheltenham would be guaranteed survival.

A Cheltenham victory coupled with a Burton draw would also be enough for the Robins to survive at Burton’s expense, regardless of Cambridge’s result.

Burton Albion, away to Fleetwood, need to at least match Cheltenham’s result; or better Cambridge’s result while also making up a three-goal swing in goal difference over Cambridge.

Cambridge would stay up if they at least match one of Cheltenham or Burton’s results; or if they lose by a margin of fewer than three goals while Burton draw and Cheltenham fail to win. Cambridge will be away to already-relegated Port Vale. 

If Cheltenham win, Burton draw and Cambridge lose, all three teams would finish on 47 points. Cheltenham would definitely be safe in this instance as they would necessarily have a better goal difference than Burton (and maybe Cambridge too). That would narrow it down to Burton or Cambridge – in which case, Burton would go down unless Cambridge lose by more than three goals or more.

If Cheltenham win and it’s exactly 0-0 in the Burton game and exactly a 3-0 loss for Cambridge, the latter two sides would be level on points, goal difference and goals scored. This scenario would send Cambridge down based on the head-to-head record against Burton.

However, if Cheltenham win and Burton instead draw 1-1 while Cambridge lose 4-1 (or any other combination that would leave the latter two level on points and goal difference that is not 0-0 and 3-0), Burton would go down based on goals scored.