There is a strong argument to make that this Premier League season is the most exciting yet. There is a three way battle at the top of the table for the title, the race for Europe goes right down to Brighton in 11th place and the relegation battle providing plenty of drama.
And if you have been watching the Premier League this season and thought to yourself ‘there have been a lot of goals this season’ then you would be correct.
In fact Harry Magiure’s 42nd minute equaliser for Manchester United against Sheffield United on Wednesday night was the 1,085th goal this season. And if you are wondering why that number is significant then it is because it beats last season’s Premier League of 1,084 goals scored in the entire season and that was the new record for a 38-game season.
Seven further goals were scored after Magiure’s taking the total for this season to 1,092 with 45 games still to play. So not only has the record already been beaten it will be obliterated by the time the final whistles are blown on May 17.
Arsenal have been the highest scoring team in the league this season with 82 goals, while bottom side Sheffield United have shipped the most with 92 (a record conceded in a 38-game season – Swindon conceded 100 goals over 42 games).
As for individual goalscorers, Manchester City’s Erling Haaland and Chelsea’s Cole Palmer are tied in the race for the Golden Boot with 20 goals each.
But why are there so many more goals this season? What are the reasons behind it and could this season go on to surpass the record for goals scored in a 42-game Premier League season?
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More time, more goals
If you have been at a Premier League game this season or watched from the comfort of your sofa then you cannot have missed that there is far more stoppage time this season compared to previous seasons.
If you go back to the 2014-15 season there was an average of 6mins 36secs of added on time per game, that number has steadily increased over the years and last season (2022-23) it was 8mins 27secs and then there has been a steep increase this season with the new directives that has seen 11mins 39secs of added time played this season. That is three minutes and 13 seconds longer than last season.
If you take that time and add it up across the season then it would equate to 13.58 extra games this season.
And more time means more goals, right? Yes. so far this season there have been 138 goals scored in added on time this season and if the scoring rate continues until the end of the season then there could be as many as 159 added time goals this season. The previous high was 102 in 2016-17 and last season there were 84 added time goals scored.
Paying the penalty
So far this season 93 penalties have been awarded, which is pretty consistent with previous seasons. The difference this season has been how many have been scored. Of those 93 penalties, 84 have been goals which is a conversion rate of 90.3 per cent. That is up from 74.4 per cent last season and the highest is 81.6 per cent in three previous seasons.
If penalties continue to be awarded and scored at the same rate for the remainder of the season then there should be 97 penalties scored this season.
Change of tactics
Over the last few seasons there has been more of a shift in the way teams set up and play in a more progressive and attacking way – and as a result more goals have been scored. This is a more unquantifiable than added time and penalties, but the stats still tell a story.
The goals per game ratio has steadily increased over the last four seasons from 2.69 in 2020-21 to 3.27 this season, and this can be put down to more fast transitions; risky passing out from the back under the opposition high pressure; and direct counter-attacking football across the league.
Take Spurs under Ange Postecoglou this season and their win or bust approach to games, as a result they have been involved in six games where they have won or lost by three goals and over all they have been involved in 15 games this season with four goals or more.
Better players, more goals
Finally , players are better and so score more goals. It is undeniable that players over the last few seasons have become faster, stronger and more technically proficient.
And the data suggests that players are getting better at shooting too.
The shot conversion rate (11.94 per cent), shooting accuracy (49.78 per cent), and the total of big chances (1,582) are all at record highs this season, which mean either players are getting better at creating and finishing or the change in tactics has seen more higher quality chances being created – most likely it is a mix of both.
Conclusion
At the current goalscoring rate of 3.26 per match – which smashes the three-goals-per-game barrier – there will be 1,239 goals by the end of the campaign, breaking the last season’s record by a massive 155 goals. If that rate is continued then there should be more goals scored in this 38-game season than the 1,222 scored in the inaugural 1992-93 Premier League season which was a 42-game season.
And the pattern suggests that the Premier League will remain on an upward trajectory for some time and therefore cementing its place as the most entertaining league in the world.
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