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Casual bettors tend to bet on favorites and also love to include them in parlays. But the NFL is one of the most unpredictable professional sports leagues in the world, and this lends itself to several surprising results every week.
Not this week.
Entering the Sunday night matchup between the Bengals and Giants, bookmakers were begging for Giants wagers due to the amount of losses they’d already taken from the earlier games. Week 6 favorites entered that game 11-1 straight up (SU) and 9-2-1 against the spread (ATS), resulting in a massive day for the public.
Joe Brennan Jr., Prime Sports executive chair stated, “What a s— day today in the NFL. If you know anyone who likes the Giants tonight, we have an account ready and waiting for them.” He wasn’t the only one to have those sentiments.
“It’s the worst day of the season so far. This could get really ugly if the Bengals win and cover,” said Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports for TwinSpires Sportsbook.
To his and many others dismay, the Giants did not win or cover, which meant two things: favorites were now 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS, and sportsbooks desperately needed a Jets win against the Bills on Monday night.
Jeff Benson, Circa Sports director of operations, posted this on X, summarizing Sunday/Monday in the NFL:
Enter Monday Night Football.
The Jets trailed 20-10 with just eight seconds left in the second quarter before Aaron Rodgers unloaded a 52-yard touchdown pass to make it 20-17 at the conclusion of the first half.
New York would kick a field goal in the third quarter to tie it up 20-20 headed into the fourth. Field goals were ultimately a huge factor in the outcome of the game, as Greg Zuerlein went two-of-four. After his miss in the fourth quarter, the Bills drove 64 yards down the field in 11 plays and kicked a field goal to take a 23-20 lead.
Rodgers had just under four minutes to get it done for the sportsbooks, but was intercepted on a deep throw after Mike Williams fell just before he was about to snag the ball. Favorites finished the week 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS. BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis stated, “Bettors got the entire sundae this week, and they deserved it. It had been a rough start to the season for them.”
Buffalo’s win also completed several parlays for the public. BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton is quoted saying, “There are some parlays as long as my arm that will cash on Bills -1.5.”
For perspective, this is just the third time in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) that only one favorite lost SU in Week 6 of the season (1975 and 2005). I’ll leave you with a final quote from Lucas, who was dreading a Buffalo win as mentioned earlier:
“With the Bills’ win, it’s like we have PIN-less ATMs at our sportsbooks. Everyone is cashing out.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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