Why the Bengals and Joe Burrow are poised to bounce back in 2024

Greg Auman

NFC South Reporter

Is there an NFL team better poised for a bounce-back year than the Cincinnati Bengals?

The health of quarterback Joe Burrow will always have a huge bearing on the Bengals’ success. In 2023, he was limited by a calf injury and then sidelined by a season-ending wrist injury 10 weeks into the year. Cincinnati still finished 9-8 and just a game out of the final wild card, but the Bengals were last in a super-tough AFC North.

Burrow is back healthy again — he reported to camp on Tuesday with a new hairdo and his old swagger — and understandably, there’s optimism around the Bengals. Their odds to win the Super Bowl are 14:1 in Las Vegas, tied for fifth-best in the league.

Go back a year, and that shouldn’t be that surprising. Consider how close the Bengals were to even more greatness. In 2021, they made the Super Bowl and had the lead for most of the fourth quarter before giving up a late touchdown to the Rams. In 2022, they held their own against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, with two drives in the fourth quarter of a tie game before losing to Kansas City on a last-second field goal.

Last year was an unusual 9-8 season for the Bengals. They beat seven different teams that finished with winning records: the 49ers, Bills, Browns, Rams, Seahawks, Jaguars and Colts. They swept the entire NFC West. At the same time, they went just 1-5 against an extremely strong AFC North, getting swept by the Ravens and Steelers, with three of the five losses by 14 points or more.

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The perks of being the best last-place team in the NFL? You get a last-place schedule, which means three games against other last-place teams. These are legitimately bad teams as well: the Panthers (2-15 last year), the Patriots (4-13) and the Titans (6-11). To put it another way: Seven NFL teams won six games or fewer last season, and the Bengals get to play six of them.

A year ago, the Bengals opened the year 1-3, but this season should be the opposite. They play at the Chiefs in Week 2, but the rest of their first month is quite manageable: home against the Patriots and Commanders and at the Panthers, which could easily be a 3-1 start before a huge Week 5 home game against Baltimore.

A healthy Burrow won’t be the only change for Cincinnati. Running back Joe Mixon, their leading rusher for each of the past seven seasons, was traded to the Texans, so the Bengals will turn to newcomer Zack Moss, who rushed for 794 yards and five touchdowns with the Colts last year. Star receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are back, though the absence of a long-term extension for Higgins could mean that this will be his final season in Cincinnati, and the receiver depth was thinned when Tyler Boyd signed in free agency with the Titans.

Cincinnati swapped out right tackles, with Trent Brown replacing Jonah Williams, and signed tight end Mike Gesicki, who totaled 18 touchdowns from 2019-22 before a quiet year with the Patriots in 2023. The biggest offensive change came when offensive coordinator Brian Callahan left to become the Titans’ head coach — the Bengals and Titans meet in Nashville in Week 15 — so former quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher has been promoted to run what is still head coach Zac Taylor’s offense.

The Bengals will need a bounce-back year from their defense as well. Cincinnati had the league’s No. 6 scoring defense in 2022, but after losing key players like safety Jessie Bates, the Bengals took a major step back last season with a young, unproven secondary. Cincinnati ranked 21st in scoring defense, but 31st in total defense and dead last in yards per play and yards per pass play. The Bengals gave up 65 pass plays of 20 yards or longer, second-worst in the league to the Lions.

Toward that end, Cincinnati signed safety Geno Stone from the Ravens, and after losing defensive lineman DJ Reader to the Texans, the Bengals added veteran Sheldon Rankins for help there, as well as second-round rookie Kris Jenkins Jr.

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If the Bengals are to return to their 2021-22 form as a team capable of a deep playoff run, the most important turnaround is in the division. Going 1-5 last season speaks to the strength of the AFC North, with the Ravens, Browns and Steelers all making the playoffs in 2023 and Baltimore reaching the conference championship. That means Cincinnati has nine games — more than half its schedule — against playoff teams from last year.

The Bengals have no division games until Week 5 against Baltimore, and the two showdowns with the Steelers are both in the final six weeks of the regular season, including a potentially significant Week 18 game in Pittsburgh. 

But in the end, it all comes back to Burrow. His 15 touchdowns and six interceptions in 10 games last year pro-rate to 25 and 10 over a full season. If he can get back to his prolific production from 2021 (34 TD passes) and 2022 (35), Cincinnati should be in the thick of the division race and a dangerous playoff team again.

Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

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